As fantasy football owners, we are on an eternal quest for knowledge. Who to start, who to sit, which sleeper has a favorable matchup, which stud is destined for failure. We have preconceived notions about each player that we’ve developed from years of first hand experience but more often than not we do what any information-crippled individual will do when looking for answers – we ask the experts.
In response, blogs, podcasts, sports radio and Sportscenter have all increased their output of fantasy football advice, but how do we sift through this barrage of stats and tips – and who, more importantly, are these experts we entrust with our fantasy football seasons.
Week after week, it is easy to find advice on who to start and who to sit, but no one holds these experts accountable after the fact. Periodically this season, I’m going to review this “expert advice” and report back on how the predictions fared.
This week, I will start at the top and look at Eric Karabell’s recommendations for week 2. For my money, Eric is cream of the crop when it comes to fantasy football analysis so lets see how accurate his recommendations were.
This is how it works – I’m looking at QBs, RBs and WRs only. If the expert said to start a player and they ended up in the top 12 for QBs, top 24 for RBs or top 36 for WRs during a given week they get a point. Likewise they get a point if the recommended a sit and the player did not rank within the above metrics for the given week. As we continue this exercise we can start to adjust for which experts only offer safe picks and which experts take some chances.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Expert Review: Eric Karabell, ESPN.com
Recommended starts:
QB – Brees, Ben Roeth, Kitna, Favre, Schaub
RB – S.Jackson, L.Johnson, Barber, Bush, C.Brown
WR – Moss, A.Johnson, R.Brown, Galloway, Branch, Burress, Chambers
Recommended sits:
QB – Leinhart, McNair, Culpepper, Rivers
RB – R.Brown, D.Ward, T.Bell, B.Jackson, C.Williams, Norwood
WR – V.Jackson, Berrian, Horn, D.Carter
By the scoring system outlined above – which is based off standard scoring – Karabell went 6 of 9 at QB, 5 of 11 at RB, and 10 or 11 at WR – 21 of 31 recommendations overall or a success rate of 68%. Not bad, tune in each week to see how he stacks up against other experts.
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[...] QB – Campbell, Schaub, McNair, Rivers, Bulger RB – Lynch, A.Green, Dunn, Maroney, T.Jones, T.Bell, L.Johnson WR – Curry, Coles, V.Jackson, D.Carter, Burress, Horn Eisenberg went 6 of 11 at QB, 10 of 14 at RB, and 10 of 12 at WR – 26 of 37 overall or a success rate of 70%. A slight edge over Karabell’s 68% from yesterday’s post of fantasy football experts. [...]
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[...] demand! For the details on how I do the scoring you can refer to last’s year’s fantasy football expert reviews. The basic goal here is review the experts’ weekly recommendations on who to start and [...]
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